Formula 2 Thoughts Post Austria/Styria: Ferrari’s Conundrum

I love Formula 2, and I’ve really enjoyed seeing drivers like Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and George Russell excel in F2, make the leap to F1 and show their capabilities at the top level.

Formula 2 in 2019…the crop of drivers who could make a realistic leap to F1 wasn’t great. While there were some exciting rookies, none of the F2 grid really had the star potential to make the leap to F1 in the same vain as a Leclerc or a Lando Norris, and only runner-up Nicholas Latifi made the leap due to his connections with the Williams F1 team. Champion Nyck de Vries was left to look elsewhere to drive.

F2 in 2020 has a much more exciting crop of young drivers to get excited about and a number of them could end up making the leap to F1 in the next few years. Not only have the rookies from last year made a step forward (Callum Ilott, Guanyu Zhou, Mick Schumacher to name some) but the rookies coming in from Formula 3 have injected great excitement into this season, such as Robert Shwartzman, Christian Lundgaard etc.

Now that we’ve seen four races over the two weekends, we’ve kind of got a glimpse of the names we’re likely to see towards the sharp-end of the F2 grid this year.

But before we get into some of those conversations, let’s talk about with the returning crop of drivers from last season (and beyond).

New to F2 this season are the 18-inch wheels, set to debut in Formula 1 next season. Normally, experience counts in F2 and, unless you’re elite, rookies generally struggle in their first season compared to those who are returning.

Tyre management is a crucial part of Formula 2 and rookies struggle with this compared to the more experienced drivers who have had some experience. This gap between the rookies and the rest hasn’t been the case as much this season as everyone has to adjust to the new 18-inch wheels and it has allowed the rookies to hit the ground running and take the competition to rest a lot more so than previous years.

The rookies returning from last year — Ilott, Zhou, Schumacher in particular — have taken a step forward and have found themselves competing near the front of the field. That probably isn’t surprising.

What has been surprising is how far some of the more experienced F2 drivers have struggled: the guys who have been there for more than two seasons.

Louis Deletraz, Nobaharu Matsushita, Artem Markelov, Luca Ghiotto, Roy Nissany, Sean Geleal… These the drivers with the most F2 experience and yet, this year, they’ve been relatively no where near the front as they probably should be with their experience — they’re nearly all genuinely struggling.

I was excited for the return of one of the ballsier GP2/F2 drivers in its history in Artem Markelov and he has been absolutely no where.

I’ve also been a little disappointed by Jack Aitken so far this season. Having left the Renault academy and signing for Williams in a reserve role, I thought he would be closer to the front but hasn’t shown the pace of a front-runner, often having to defend from cars following him.

But let’s not dwell too long on those who don’t have the pace and focus on those that do.

Let’s start with the drivers returning from last year.

Guanyu Zhou, arguably, should be leading the championship but car troubles in the feature race of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend denied him a certain victory before finishing out of the points. He has since continued to show pace and has finished ahead of teammate Callum Ilott in both races of the Styrian Grand Prix weekend: a solid 3rd and 4th.

Ilott appears to be much improved from last year, and though he inherited a straightforward feature race victory at the Austrian Grand Prix, his pace has been strong. We’ll talk more about Ilott later.

Mick Schumacher has shown he has the pace to finish on the podium but a costly error in the feature race in Austria cost him a podium after he was contending for the race-win, followed by an unfortunate fire extinguisher malfunction that cost him while he was running 3rd in the sprint race in Styria. Mick has shown he has the pace but just needs to put together a full weekend to show his credentials.

Let’s move onto the rookies, who have made an instant splash in F2 in 2020.

Probably no better place to start than Robert Shwartzman, the driver leading the championship after four races. He’s been very consistent in his pace and took a stellar victory in rain-soaked Styrian Grand Prix feature race. The only blot on his copybook is that he should be leading by more, a driver-error on lap 1 coming out of turn 1 in the sprint race as he lost the rear of the car and was unable to get back going forced him into a self-inflicted DNF. We’ll talk more about Shwartzman soon but he has impressed thus far.

Christian Lundgaard has been a steady performer but showed great pace in the wet in Styria before taking victory in the sprint race in Styria. The Renault academy driver was one of the contenders for the F3 title last season and is currently a just five points behind F3 title rival Shwartzman.

Dan Ticktum is not a driver I particularly like (due to his past actions on the track, feel free to Google them) but the Brit has performed well, taking two podiums so far in F2 and sits in a strong fourth in the standings. Too bad this form wasn’t there in the old F3 where he lost the lead of the title to Schumacher, costing him his Superlicence and his all but certain drive with Toro Rosso for 2019…

Yuki Tsunoda showed great pace in the feature race of the Styrian Grand Prix and probably should’ve won had he not suffered radio issues. Would’ve been a nice way to make up for spinning his teammate, Jehan Daruvala, on lap 1 of the feature race in Austria but alas… Tsunoda is certainly a driver to monitor, we’ll talk about that more soon.

I think this season (as well as next season) of Formula 2 is a very important one.

I don’t think it’s groundbreaking to say that there could be a few seats in Formula 1 up for grabs in 2021, with a number of teams’ lineups yet to be confirmed. Williams could potentially have a seat available, Alfa Romeo may have an opening, Alpha Tauri may have an opening and Haas technically have two open seats (but haven’t wanted to fill it with a young driver as of yet).

2022 is its own conversation for another time but the sooner some of these drivers can lay down the groundwork this season, the better. Let’s stick with 2021.

Probably easier to break this down by driver academy, as all of these drivers we’ve talked about belong to an academy of some sort…

Let’s start with Renault, because this will be quick. While their two drivers — Zhou and Lundgaard — are impressing in F2 this season, their path to F1 is blocked for at least a year with Renault’s confirmed lineup of Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso for 2021. Should Zhou or Lundgaard win the F2 title (and, thus, unable to return to F2), it would create a problem in terms of finding somewhere to drive for 2021 but they’re basically set for another season in F2 should neither win the title as there’s just no way forward to Renault, and I don’t think any other F1 team is going to help nurture Renault’s talent.

Red Bull/Honda have an interesting duo of Daruvala (Red Bull) and Tsunoda (Honda). Both have shown promising pace, and I wonder if their battle as teammates in the standings will become a shootout for a potential drive at Alpha Tauri. It depends a lot on what happens with Pierre Gasly/Alex Albon/Daniil Kvyat and if any of them leave the Red Bull program to join another team (such as Haas, potentially). At this early stage, Tsunoda has shown a little more and Tsunoda is the first potentially promising Honda driver who could make the leap to F1 (no offense, Matsushita). However, it’s very early for that kind of talk yet but it’s out there…

The real conundrum comes with the Ferrari academy drivers: Robert Shwartzman, Mick Schumacher, Callum Ilott and Marcus Armstrong. We haven’t really talked about Armstrong (he’s been solid in F2 so far, sitting in 5th place), or fellow Ferrari academy driver Guilano Alesi, but Alesi won’t be part of what we’re talking about here.

Whether a seat appears at Alpha Tauri remains to be seen, but I think it’s very possible an opening appears at Alfa Romeo, maybe even two.

Kimi Raikkonen obviously has a decision to make with what he wants to do post 2020 and Alfa Romeo/Ferrari have a choice with Antonio Giovinazzi. Gio has closed the gap to Raikkonen since the beginning of 2019 but the star potential sitting in Ferrari’s academy cannot be ignored and Gio — who turns 27 in December — is not immune from being replaced. No one owes him anything in Formula 1.

If there is a seat or two up for grabs at Alfa Romeo, the competition between Ferrari’s academy drivers becomes a lot more significant, and the Formula 2 standings may end up being the deciding factor in one potentially being selected. The fact that there are four Ferrari drivers who are amongst the front-runners so far means that the competition between these drivers may become very intense as they understand the stakes.

I think Mick Schumacher is still probably at the front of this queue right now — he probably always has been, he just needed to show some front-running pace to validate that. He has the name and he has F1 testing experience (and experience driving some older F1 cars belonging to his father too).

Right now, Robert Shwartzman is the obvious threat to Schumacher as he currently leads the F2 standings, and if he were to win the title and unable to return to F2, it puts Ferrari in a tough spot. Shwartzman appears to be legit and Schumacher needs to close the gap and eliminate some of these errors that have cost him so far.

Ilott was an underwhelming Ferrari junior at times last year but has taken a step forward so far this season, and that keeps all of the other Ferrari members on their toes. He’s seemingly a force to be reckoned with and is one of the quickest drivers on the F2 grid so far and an early contender for this F2 title. He may not be a favourite to land an F1 seat, but he can certainly give Ferrari a headache and that’s all he can do in his position.

Marcus Armstrong is certainly on the outside looking in, as is Alesi, but Armstrong has had some solid performances already in F2 and he has shown he has the pace, which will always give him a chance to contend near the front (whether it’s in the feature or sprint race with a strong starting position on the reverse grid). That said, he has a lot of work to do to put himself ahead of Schumacher, Ilott and Shwartzman.

Ferrari/Alfa Romeo certainly aren’t helped by having a straightforward option to choose from, should a seat open up at Alfa Romeo. Often in the races, three of the top six consist of Ferrari Academy drivers.

It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch that championship in its own right unfold as an opening in Formula 1 potentially presents itself.

Ferrari certainly has a lot to think about…

How the Alonso signing diminishes Renault junior academy

Image: @RenaultF1Team

The number of champions on the Formula 1 grid for the 2021 was in threat of diminishing to just Lewis Hamilton, with the futures of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen in Formula 1 currently unknown ahead of the 2021 season. However their futures are resolved, F1 will have more than one champion on the grid next season as Renault announced the return of two-time champion Fernando Alonso on Wednesday for the 2021 and 2022 seasons, replacing the outgoing Daniel Ricciardo, who is headed to Alonso’s former team at McLaren.

The return of Fernando Alonso is, overall, a win for Formula 1, who certainly let him down as he exited from the sport at the end of 2018, with no path to a top team on the grid.

A return to Renault, certainly in 2021, would appear to be a similar situation that Alonso left in 2018: a top-class driver toiling around in the midfield.

The new regulations that were originally due for 2021 were pushed back to 2022 amid the Coronavirus outbreak. That certainly didn’t help Alonso and his F1 comeback. Who knows what Renault’s potential pace is amongst F1’s rules reset but you can be fairly sure — barring a miracle — that Renault won’t be competing for victories in 2021 (happy to be proven wrong though).

Myself, I love Fernando Alonso. He’s not only my favourite driver of all time but I think he is the 2nd best driver of this century (after Michael Schumacher). He’s tenacious, relentless, just an incredible driver and knows how to drag the most out of an F1 car. There are few drivers who have the winning calibre of Alonso that could go through what he did from 2015-2018 in those awful McLarens and not just give up and go home.

I have mixed feelings about Alonso returning to F1.

I think for Renault, yes, he is definitely what they need in terms of driver who can deliver on the track and a driver who help drive and help direct development. The 2019 McLaren is one of the results of the season-long feedback Alonso would have given on the 2018 car. Renault need a similar driver direction to help them in the development of their car: they need to be where Racing Point and McLaren are right now. They’re close enough but they need to be there. Alonso can help them with that.

Like I said, Alonso is my favourite driver of all time. It’s great for F1 he’s back and I’ll sure be happy to see him on track again. But in another sense, I don’t want to see him back unless he has a chance to win races and championships.

Alonso has had a fantastic career where he, somehow, only achieved two world championships. Everyone will look back and wonder how on earth did a driver the calibre of Fernando Alonso only win two world titles, and none after 2006? It’s a shame it worked out that way, it’s a shame the first McLaren stint didn’t work out, it’s a shame Ferrari could never give Alonso the best car on the grid, or one quicker than Red Bull when it mattered the most. It’s a shame Honda grossly underestimated what it meant to develop a V6 hybrid power unit. It’s a shame Alonso didn’t win another F1 race after 2013. It’s a shame Ferrari gave him the worst Ferrari of this century in 2014 (2009 at least won a race).

It’s a shame, but that’s the story of Fernando Alonso’s career: he was a driver who didn’t get all of the breaks, didn’t end up in the right place at the right time after 2006. We don’t get what we deserve sometimes, and that, sadly, is the story of Alonso’s F1 career after 2006.

Now, it’s 2020 and next year when Alonso returns it’ll be 2021: 20 years down the road from when Alonso made his debut with Minardi in 2001. I love Alonso, but he’s had his time in F1. If he’s not winning races, maybe it’s better if he’s not there.

Many things have changed in F1 since 2001, and something that is a lot more prevalent in F1 now are driver academies/junior programs. A lot fo F1 teams have academy drivers, especially the top teams — this includes Renault.

Renault’s driver academy is quite extensive and they have two drivers in Formula 2 who are part of their academy: Guanyu Zhou and Christian Lundgaard. Add to that promising talent Oscar Piastri, who took victory in F3’s feature race over the weekend.

Renault’s usage of their driver academy has been very frustrating to watch. Almost every other team who has had academy drivers have given at least one driver a shot in Formula 1, even if it isn’t with their own team.

Mercedes didn’t have an opening for their academy drivers (who weren’t ready anyways) were able to get George Russell into a Williams and, before that, Esteban Ocon into a Force India for a full-time seat.

Before Charles Leclerc drove for Ferrari, he drove for Alfa Romeo for a year, and Antonio Giovinazzi currently drives for Alfa Romeo.

Lando Norris was a McLaren academy driver before replacing Stoffel Vandoorne — who himself was a McLaren junior driver waiting in the wings in 2016 — for 2019.

Nicholas Latifi was a Williams junior driver.

Red Bull’s history of academy drivers is obviously well documented (heck, they have an entire F1 team basically dedicated to that).

For as many academy drivers Renault have had, none of them have made the step to Formula 1 over the recent years like other teams have. And none have been as promising as Guanyu Zhou, who is set for a potential title challenge in this season’s F2 season — after standing out as the top rookie from last year — if last weekend’s showing at Austria is to be believed.

Christian Lundgaard is also a strong driver within the program, who has top-10 potential in F2 this season.

F2 is the final stepping stone for Formula 1, but obviously requires an opening to make that step. What step is there for these drivers to make that step with Renault?

Esteban Ocon is contracted to Renault for this current season and next season, 2021. Even after 2021, there’s no guarantee Ocon will land himself in a Mercedes. With Alonso on a two-year deal — unless Mercedes call-up Ocon after 2021 — there’s going to no space for a Renault junior driver to make the jump to the works team for at least two years.

Signing Alonso is a slap in the face to everyone who partakes in the Renault Junior Academy. It shows absolutely zero faith in any of the junior drivers.

Where’s the path for them? What confidence is there that they’ll make the jump to an F1 seat with Renault? Why do you think Jack Aitken left the Renault Academy for the Williams reserve role?

“I’m just not confident that they’re necessarily as invested in their junior driver academy as the junior drivers might hope,” said Aitken.

Aitken’s decision to leave Renault speaks volumes, and he’s so right. He has a much larger chance to be considered for an F1 drive at Williams, whenever George Russell leaves, than he ever would at Renault.

Aitken has been proved right by this decision taken by Renault. If you’re Christian Lundgaard or Guanyu Zhou, what are you to make of it all? How are they going to get to F1? Like Aitken, it’s going to have to be with another team.

I genuinely think, with a strong season, that Guanyu Zhou will be ready to make the leap to Formula 1 with Renault — he is the best academy driver they have had. And Renault have decided to pass him over.

I love Fernando Alonso, but he’s had his time. I understand Renault wanting to jump at the chance to sign Daniel Ricciardo: that’s absolutely fine. But with that opening for 2021 after Ricciardo’s exit, now was the time Renault showed some faith in their own academy, and the fact that they haven’t is a slap in the face to everyone involved and a slamming indictment of their own academy and all the time, money and effort invested into it…

For tomorrow, Alonso blocks the path for Renault’s younger drivers. For today? It’s exactly what Renault need to bring them forward…

Vettel’s Ferrari departure opens door to 2021 driver market

(Image: @ScuderiaFerrari)

F1 2020 isn’t even in action and the driver market is already hitting its pinnacle as it was announced on Tuesday — after reports surfaced late on Monday night — that Ferrari and four-time champion Sebastian Vettel would end their partnership at the end of the 2020 season…whenever that may be.

Vettel and Ferrari had been talking about a new contract for a while now but those talks yielded no fruit, with Ferrari effectively made the decision to build with Charles Leclerc, signing him to a multi-year contract in December leaving Vettel’s future as the team’s number one option in doubt as he entered the final year of his contract.

Leclerc appeared to challenge, if not, usurp Vettel’s number one status in the team as the Monegasque driver basically outperformed Vettel in nearly all facets last season, Leclerc’s first with the Scuderia. Many drew parallels from when Daniel Ricciardo joined Red Bull in 2014 and outperformed Vettel — the reigning four-time world champion — in his first season. Vettel then left Red Bull at the end of 2014 to join the Scuderia as Ricciardo rose, and many believed the same situation would arise again with Leclerc.

But all of that aside, it leaves a very, very coveted seat open for grabs. Unlike the previous instance where a seat was up for grabs, that seat very clearly belonged to Charles Leclerc, the reigning F2 champion and the rookie was turning everyone’s heads in his first season in Formula 1 with Sauber.

This time, however, there’s no starlet in the waiting for Ferrari.

Antonio Giovinazzi was better than his placement in last year’s standings showed, but he’s not ready — or possibly talented enough — to take on that Scuderia drive. Other Ferrari academy drivers include Giuliano Alesi but more notably, Mick Schumacher and current F3 champion Robert Shwartzman.

Shwartzman I think will be a contender for the F2 title this season but you don’t go from F2 straight to a drive with the Scuderia, and while Schumacher has experience in an F1 car, it’s only from a testing point of view and it would appear unlikely that Ferrari would promote an F2 driver straight to Maranello.

So, this leaves Ferrari looking almost certainly at an external hire and basically everyone not under a Mercedes driver affiliation (George Russell, basically) or a current Red Bull should be queuing up and phoning until Mattia Binotto is sick.

The name coming to the fore at these very early stages — according to the reporting out there — is McLaren’s Carlos Sainz. The other name out there is Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo, but Sainz appears to be ahead at this early stage.

I think Daniel Ricciardo would rip your arm off and jump at the chance of a Ferrari seat and get out of his Renault mistake. Carlos Sainz is in a bit of a trickier situation.

McLaren is a feel-good story right now. They had a great 2019 where they were best of the rest and did it with a refreshing, fun and gutty duo of Sainz and rookie Lando Norris. They’re a team clearly on the up, and that’s before the new regulations — now set to be introduced in 2022 — and, perhaps more importantly for the near future, a Mercedes power unit from 2021.

Ferrari is ultimately Ferrari and an offer from the Italian outfit is usually too much to turn down no matter what your situation, but it spoke volumes when Fernando Alonso got out of his contract two years early to leave, believing that he could not win a title at Ferrari — can you blame him, after the atrocity that was the 2014 car, the worse Ferrari since the early 90’s at least?

If Sainz truly believes in the McLaren project (and there’s a lot of reasons to do so right now), would he leave what is a great situation to be in, and do so easily? There’s a fun dynamic at McLaren now, that does not exist at Ferrari. Being a Ferrari driver comes with so much more than just driving the famous red car. I think it’s fair to say Sebastian Vettel didn’t cope with that as well as drivers like Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher. I’m not saying Sainz wouldn’t, but it’s something to consider when joining Ferrari. Added to that, Sainz is only 25 years old. I’m sure there’s time in his career for a shot at a top seat, if that doesn’t transpire with McLaren.

I just don’t think it’s a straightforward yes from Sainz to leave for Ferrari, there’s a lot to consider.

There’s a lot less to consider from Daniel Ricciardo’s side.

Firstly, Ricciardo is 30 years old which means and has been part of F1’s grid since 2011 which, sadly, means he more than likely has less time remaining in F1 than he has already been a part of. He has less time to aim for a world title than Sainz does. Danny Ric a proven race-winner with a killer instinct who has tasted success and is incredibly keen for more. His ambitious switch to Renault simply hasn’t worked so far, and I don’t think 2020 is going to be the year Renault make that jump, which means another year of watching Ricciardo toil in the midfield — where he doesn’t belong. Most importantly, I think Ricciardo knows that fact too: that he shouldn’t be in the midfield. He’d take your arm for a chance to swap that situation for one with Ferrari — I have absolutely no doubt about that.

There’s no doubting his ability to drive and there’s no doubt that he would be deserving of a drive with Ferrari. Added to that, he has a fantastic personality that I think would be different to anything Ferrari have had, and I don’t think the pressure would get to him as easily as it would others. He has hunted and has been hunted for race wins, Ricciardo knows how to deal with the pressure.

Added to that, according to RaceFans.net, Ferrari have an option on Ricciardo, signed last winter. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock but that’s very interesting.

It comes down to who do Ferrari seek first, and if it’s Sainz, does Sainz turn them down? Because I absolutely believe Ricciardo does not.

What about other drivers? Well, the the majority of drivers on the grid are out of contract at the end of this year (what a bad time for Sergio Perez to lock himself into a contract, unless it has an out), so they’re in the correct position for that Ferrari seat in that their contract expires at the end of the season, and there’s still no telling what happens at Mercedes with their drivers, who are both out of contract at the end of the year.

This Hamilton to Ferrari talk, I don’t think it’s going to happen — and the reporting out there seems to say the same thing right now.

Valterri Bottas is extremely interesting.

He would be, without doubt, the most disappointing choice to the sport if he ended up in that Ferrari seat. I think it’d be a shame for the sport if Bottas ends up in a Ferrari. That’s harsh, I get it, but I think it’s true. But you can see why Ferrari would think about it…

Bottas has already proven himself capable as a number 2 driver, he can pick up some victories, easy to get along with and is a good team player. Now, Bottas may say he has higher aspirations than a number 2 driver and that may be true, but you’re not turning down an offer from Ferrari if it comes, especially if Mercedes don’t offer an extension, and with someone like George Russell waiting in the wings for a Mercedes drive. That’s going to happen at some point. If Mercedes decide that time is 2021, Bottas is left in a tough spot. And if an offer from Ferrari comes, you’re going there with the knowledge that you are behind Charles Leclerc in the pecking order, until you give them a reason not to. Again, I don’t care who you are and what your aspirations are: you’re taking a drive from Ferrari if it’s offered to you, and if you don’t…I hope I’m you’re not close to me in the event of a shipwreck, because your balls are going to force you to sink to the bottom of the ocean and I don’t want to drown.

There’s a few options outside of F1, but I don’t see Fernando Alonso nor Nico Hulkenburg being seriously considered for Ferrari. Unless Ferrari decide they want something short-term next to Leclerc while they get a look at either Shwartzman or Schumacher in F1 (maybe in a Haas or Alfa Romeo possibly?) but I don’t see that happening.

It’s something to think about though, because if you sign Carlos Sainz, that’s a longer-term thing. Ricciardo, not so much and obviously Alonso/Hulkenberg/Bottas not as much of a long-term thing as Sainz. And if Sainz performs and help bring success, they may end up blocking a route for one of their drivers to break into the senior team if Shwartzman or Schumacher show that potential — it could leave them trapped in a similar way that George Russell could end up if Bottas continues to perform.

Kimi Raikkonen would be an absolutely hilarious choice, if they went back to him for a third spell. They obviously know what they have in Raikkonen but I don’t see it happening. Would be absolutely amazing though.

I think that effectively covers Ferraris options, now let’s turn to what Sebastian Vettel does and it largely revolves around one question: does he want to continue in Formula 1?

If the answer is no, then that settles that. If the answer is yes, then things are a little more complicated.

According to the reporting out there at this time, Mercedes aren’t interested in Vettel and Red Bull won’t pair Max Verstappen and Vettel together — that’s an obvious given for both monetary reasons and, well, everything else. Those two wouldn’t be good teammates, as fun as it would be for everyone else. So, I think it’s fair to rule out Mercedes and Red Bull.

It may come down to which driver ends up taking that Ferrari seat, whether it’s Sainz or Ricciardo.

It’s fair to say Vettel has less years in front of him in his F1 career than he has behind him, but he can stick around for a number of years if he so chooses. Renault…I wouldn’t like to see for Vettel — I’m not sure Vettel would be interested in that. McLaren would be a fascinating opportunity. If Sainz left, I’m sure McLaren would love to have a four-time champion in their ranks and if their fortunes continue to rise, they could find themselves back at the sharp-end in a few years and that would be Vettel’s ticket back to the front-end of the grid, which is the only thing that would interest him at this stage.

I would imagine that Vettel feels that he has nothing left to prove in F1 as a four-time world champion and as someone who has won over 50 Grand Prix. He’s also a family man and a pretty private person, and I can see him leaving this circus behind and leaving F1 at the end of this season — I think that’s what’s going to happen. It’d be sad to lose Vettel from the paddock, he’s got a good personality and on his day, he’s up there. I would love to see him at McLaren though. He could change the entire narrative of his post-Red Bull career if he could lead McLaren back to the front of the grid.

Should Sainz accept an offer and Vettel retire, I imagine Ricciardo will whizz his way to McLaren fairly quickly and that leaves a spot at Renault, whether that’s Fernando Alonso or perhaps Nico Hulkenberg, or maybe Guanyu Zhou — it’s about time Renault showed some faith in their young driver academy.

Whatever direction Ferrari end up taking, the sharp-end of the F1 grid is losing one of its star players of the last decade in Vettel. Is it finally someone else’s turn?